Global outlook for sustainability by 2050

Concerns about sustainability in the 21st century have prompted comprehensive global studies that look at present worldwide trends and provide forecasts, scenarios and visions for the future, with the aim of clarifying paths to a truly sustainable development, anticipating future problems, providing guidance for long-term planning and encouraging action at all levels.

The following are overviews of three important global studies, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Road to 2050, and Living Planet Report 2006 that are directly relevant to the objectives of Maryland 2050:

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

Text adapted from: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC. (Full report, PDF 15 MB)

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is an international work program launched by the United Nations in 2001 and designed to meet the needs of decision makers and the public for scientific information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and options for responding to those changes. The global assessment was launched in March 2005 with the input and review of over 1,300 authors from 95 countries; a truly comprehensive and highly authoritative assessment of the state of the planet. The MA synthesizes information from the scientific literature, datasets, and scientific models, and includes knowledge held by the private sector, practitioners, local communities and indigenous peoples. The MA has helped build individual and institutional capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments, identify priorities for action and act on the findings. It will help to meet assessment needs of Multilateral Environmental Agreements, as well as needs of other users in governments, private sector and civil society.

The MA focuses on ecosystem services, how changes in ecosystem services* have affected human well-being** and how ecosystem changes may affect people in future decades. Both ecosystem services and human well-being are affected by drivers of change, such as globalization, technological developments, land use change, population growth, climate change and others. The trends of these drivers may vary significantly by 2050 depending on how the world moves forward in the next decades. To account for this array of possibilities, the MA contemplates four global scenarios of the world in 2050. The scenarios explored two global development paths, one in which the world becomes increasingly globalized and the other in which it becomes increasingly regionalized; as well as two different approaches to ecosystem management, one in which actions are reactive and most problems are addressed only after they become obvious and the other in which ecosystem management is proactive and policies deliberately seek to maintain ecosystem services for the long term. The global outcomes for ecosystem changes and human well-being are significantly different under each of the four scenarios.

*Ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services such as regulation of floods, drought, land degradation, and disease; supporting services such as soil formation and nutrient cycling; and cultural services such as recreational, spiritual, religious and other nonmaterial benefits.

**Human well-being. Human well-being has multiple constituents, including basic material for a good life, freedom of choice and action, health, good social relations, and security. Well-being is at the opposite end of a continuum from poverty, which has been defined as a ‘‘pronounced deprivation in well-being.’’ The constituents of well-being, as experienced and perceived by people, are situation-dependent, reflecting local geography, culture, and ecological circumstances.

The MA presents four key findings:

“1. Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber, and fuel. This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth.

2. The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of the degradation of many ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people. These problems, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems.

3. The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals.

4. The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met under some scenarios that the MA has considered, but these involve significant changes in policies, institutions, and practices that are not currently under way. Many options exist to conserve or enhance specific ecosystem services in ways that reduce negative trade-offs or that provide positive synergies with other ecosystem services.”

Source: MEA. 2005. p.1

Current trends:

Given the multitude of factors contemplated by the MA, a summary of current trends is not attempted here. For the best snapshot view of the current global trends of ecosystem services, we recommend looking at Table 1, page 7, and Figure 13, page 16 of the MA Synthesis report. Table 2.1. on pages 42-45 provides a more detailed view of Table 1. Please browse the PDF document to get to those tables. The global trend for the different topics covered by Maryland 2050 is given in the issue summaries.

Projections by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment for 2050:

Since the MA explored 4 different scenarios: Global Orchestration (Globalized and Reactive), Order from Strength (Regionalized and Reactive), Adapting Mosaic (Regionalized and Proactive) and Technogarden (Globalized and Proactive) there are 4 different sets of projected outcomes for the state of the world’s ecosystem services and human well-being by 2050 . Descriptions of each scenario are found on pages 71-73 of the MA Synthesis Report - the assumptions of each scenario are specified on Table 5.1, page 76 and the outcomes are summarized in Table 5.2. Overall, Maryland and the world would seem to benefit more from the scenarios “Adapting Mosaic” and “Technogarden”, less so form “Global Orchestration” and least of all by “Order from Strength”.

Documents and additional resources:

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Homepage
• Popularized version of MA findings (Greenfacts.org)
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report (PDF 15 MB)
• Overview of Reports
• Overview presentations for download

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THE ROAD TO 2050

This report by the World Bank underlines the main challenges that the world must face to achieve a wealthier and more equitable planet by 2050. These challenges are natural resource management, better governance, socially sustainable development, agricultural productivity, and climate change. All of these must be addressed to successfully accomplish such a vision. “The Road to 2050” deliberately sets an optimistic scenario of a wealthier and more equitable world, and highlights the key policy fields where action must be taken to ensure such a goal, including areas not covered in detail by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, such as governance and social policy.

The world in 2050 is projected to show big demographic and economic changes as compared to the world today. Human population is likely to increase by 50% from 6 billion today to 9 billion in 2050, with most of the increase occurring in developing countries. In terms of the economy, if a projected GDP yearly growth of 3.3% in developing countries and 2% in industrial countries is realized, the total size of the global economy would increase almost four-fold from $35 trillion today to $135 trillion in 2050. 60% of that GDP will remain in industrial countries according to those projections. The combination of a larger economy and a larger population will make the challenges more pressing.

In terms of Natural Resource Management, the report highlights the role that natural resources play in development, and the need for improved management at all levels, especially in low-income countries where development is more dependent on these resources. It also emphasizes the need for accounting the natural resources component in measures of wealth and development, for instance, incorporating measures of ecosystem services.

The importance of good governance as a factor in development is underlined, indicating that improvements are necessary both in developing and in industrial countries, in the public and private sectors, and very importantly, in the international arena. Attacking the problem of corruption is a central aspect of good governance.

Socially sustainable development is referred to as the active inclusion of social concerns, community participation and community empowerment in the development agenda. Addressing violent conflict in different countries is an important part of this component.

Clearly, with a larger and wealthier population, the increase in demand for food is an enormous challenge, so agricultural productivity needs to be increased. The report calls for major worldwide cooperation and targeted investments in agricultural research and development that look for intensification, efficiency and environmental stewardship.

Climate change is considered as a major threat for world stability and a growing constraint for an economic growth based on unchecked energy consumption. Therefore, the report highlights the need to pursue energy efficiency at all levels in order to minimize emissions, while understanding that some climate change is inevitable and thus adaptation strategies need to be crafted as well.

Reference: The Road to 2050. Sustainable Development for the 21st Century. 2006. The World Bank. Washington D.C.

• World Bank – Sustainable Development
• The Road to 2050 Part 1 (PDF 2.0 MB)
• The Road to 2050 Part 2 (PDF 2.5 MB)

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Living Planet Report 2006